This is going to seem pessimistic, but read it all the way
to the end. By the time you finish, it may seem more optimistic than
pessimistic.
First, some facts. These are my opinions and observations,
no one else’s that I know of. I am a RETIRED physician. I no longer have a
medical license. My areas of expertise were emergency medicine and urgent care.
I dabbled in sports medicine. My main conflicts in the medical field were my
inability to give patients unnecessary medications, i.e. antibiotics for viral
infections and narcotic pain medications without a real need. My opinions
sometimes were the source of conflict with patients. I didn’t retire early, but
I don’t miss practicing medicine.
Now, the bad news: Covid-19. Now, more bad news: this is a
corona virus, similar to the corona viruses that cause the common cold. Corona
viruses mutate frequently. The reason THERE IS NO CURE FOR THE COMMON COLD is
that it is difficult to make a vaccine for a virus that MUTATES FREQUENTLY,
because when viruses mutate a vaccine resistant form frequently develops. There
may NEVER be a vaccine for Covid-19. The good news here is that IF there is a
vaccine effective against Covid-19, there may eventually be an effective
vaccine for the common cold. MAYBE.
More bad news: Covid-19 is unique and new to Homo sapiens.
That means, very few people are immune to it. Think smallpox and Native
Americans. The good news here is that Covid-19 is nowhere near as deadly as
smallpox. After all the numbers are added up and everyone is tested, it may
turn out to be less deadly than the yearly influenza we put up with every
winter.
Even more bad news: This virus is VERY, VERY, VERY
contagious, much more so than the influenza. So, even though it may be less
deadly, many more people are going to get it. Many more people are going to die
from it than die from the flu. It is likely that EVERYONE is going to get it
eventually. Some of us will have a natural immunity. Having seen a myriad of
corona viruses in the past, our immune system MAY reject this virus immediately.
That may leave you with NO symptoms, although you MAY be a carrier for 2-3
weeks, capable of infecting others. Some of us will experience symptoms similar
to (but less or more severe) than a common cold. Some of us will die. You need
to prepare for the last one. Eventually, every one of us will die. With this
pandemic, it may happen sooner than you had assumed (as if you can plan such a
thing). So, take this isolation time to get your affairs in order. Better safe
than sorry.
Viruses are parasites. It is not in a parasite’s best
interest to kill its host, because it then dies also. Parasites have evolved to
infect a host, live long enough for the host to pass on the infection, and
thereby spread their genes and the resultant disease. The good news here is
that parasites tend to mutate in the direction of decreasing lethality. That
way they stay around longer, and infect more hosts. If they mutate to a more
lethal form, they can be so deadly that they kill the hosts before they are
passed on.
The ultimate bad news: The United Sates of America is
inadequately prepared to participate in this pandemic. We have no universal
health care. We have a ponderous government, run by elected officials who seem
to respond only to severe emergencies (like government shutdowns over budgets).
The present administration may have slowed its response by gutting the CDC and
pandemic response unit. But probably not by much, given the brash denial of
scientific facts espoused by a good portion of Americans. They realize that
being ignorant of scientific knowledge is one of their God given rights. They
will champion those rights, by God, even if it kills them. And it has.
Social distancing and wearing masks have their merits. There
are not enough ICU beds, or medical workers, in the USA to care for all the acutely
ill patients if everyone comes down with this virus at the same time. Social
distancing helps spread out the occurrence of the disease in time, so fewer
people are sick at one time (flattened curve). This way there may be enough respirators
and ICU beds when they are needed. Although, health care workers are going to
be running a marathon and we may run short of them. This pandemic is going to
last a LONG time.
Sweden has taken a different approach. Being a
socialistic/capitalistic country, they have universal health care. They care
for their citizens from cradle to grave. Their government has looked at all the
same information our government has, and has decided they can’t fight the
virus. They are sacrificing a small percentage of their population in hopes
that most Swedes will prove to be immune, or sufficiently strong enough to
survive the virus. It’s likely a financial decision, too. The fewer old folks
in expensive nursing homes and ICUs, and on respirators, the better they can
care for the young.
Unless someone finds a cure, a lot of people are going to
die. Unless someone develops a vaccine, the same is true. YOU are going to get
this virus. PLAN on it. If you are lucky, there will be a respirator available at
the time, if you need it. With luck, the number of health care workers still
able to work will be able to handle the workload when you need them.
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